Business

October 9, 2013

Forecast International predicts declining light military rotorcraft market

In a newly issued study, “The Market for Light Military Rotorcraft,” Forecast International predicts that 1,411 of these rotorcraft will be produced in the 10-year period between 2013 and 2022.

The Connecticut-based market research firm estimates the value of this production at $23.6 billion in constant 2013 U.S. dollars.  The study defines a military rotorcraft as light when it has a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804 kilograms (15,000 pounfd).

The light military rotorcraft market has slowed after experiencing substantial growth in much of the previous decade.  Annual production of light military rotorcraft more than doubled between 2006 and 2010, as yearly output rose from 94 units in 2006 to 209 in 2010.  By 2012, though, production totaled only 180 units, and Forecast International predicts that further decline is in store over the next 10 years.

According to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, “The trend in annual production in the light military rotorcraft market over the next 10 years will be somewhat uneven, but the overall trajectory will be downward.”  The company’s projections indicate that annual production will total 171 units in 2013, but decline to 109 units by 2022.

Said Jaworowski, “A shrinking market usually results in a fiercely competitive market, and the light military rotorcraft sector will be no exception.  Manufacturers will aggressively compete for every upcoming procurement.”

The light military rotorcraft market is being impacted by the fact that defense budgets in many nations are being reduced as governments, in the midst of severe financial straits, look to cut total spending.  In addition, a number of acquisition programs for light military rotorcraft will come to an end in the next few years.  Very few new programs have emerged that would help keep overall production in the market on an upward, or even stable, course during the forecast timeframe.  The situation is especially acute in the U.S. and in much of Europe.  However, the study does see some regional bright spots in the market for manufacturers, such as Latin America, the Middle East, and South Asia.

The new study includes projections of manufacturer market shares for the 2013-2022 period.  The study indicates that Eurocopter and Bell will be the leading manufacturers of light military rotorcraft during the 10-year timeframe, with Eurocopter leading in unit production and Bell leading in monetary value of production.




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