Business

October 9, 2013

Forecast International predicts restrained growth in regional aircraft market

In Forecast International’s new study, “The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft,” the Connecticut-based market research firm predicts that 4,035 regional aircraft will be built from 2013 through 2022.

The value of this production, which includes both regional jets and regional turboprop airliners, is estimated at $141.8 billion in 2013 U.S. dollars.

In the new study, Forecast International projects that annual regional aircraft production will experience gradual, though steady, growth between 2013 and 2020.  The company expects 371 regional aircraft to be produced in 2013, with annual output rising to a peak of 486 aircraft in 2020.  A cyclical downturn is anticipated for 2021 and 2022, the final two years of the forecast period.

Increasing market demand for regional aircraft is being fueled by a number of factors, including rising air traffic on regional routes and a need for regional carriers to replace economically inefficient aircraft.  However, the Forecast International study points out that certain restraining factors exist that will place some limits on growth in the market.  For instance, the ongoing consolidation of major airlines has led to fewer opportunities for feeder work for regional carriers.  Too many regional airlines are chasing too few opportunities.

Other factors that will hamper market growth include increasing government regulation and the maturation of the U.S. and European air travel markets.  In addition, perhaps the most critical factor limiting market growth is the continuing existence of scope clauses in major airline pilot contracts, which restrict the size and number of aircraft that regional partners of major carriers can operate.  The maximum capacity permitted in most scope clauses in the U.S. market is 76 seats.

The existence of such scope clauses limits the overall growth that can be achieved in sales of regional jets seating 90 passengers or more.  Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski said, “Scope clauses constitute an artificial barrier to natural growth in the regional jet market.  Demand in the market is already trending toward larger-capacity aircraft and, in the absence of scope clause limitations, this trend would strengthen and accelerate.”

Forecast International predicts that the leading regional aircraft manufacturers during the 2013-2022 timeframe will be Bombardier, Embraer, and ATR.  Bombardier is expected to lead the market in the number of aircraft produced, while Embraer is forecast to lead in the monetary value of production.  Bombardier is expected to produce 1,035 regional aircraft, worth $47.7 billion, during the forecast period.  Embraer is projected to build 1,018 regional aircraft, worth $49.5 billion.  ATR is expected to be third in both categories with production of 668 aircraft, worth $15.4 billion.

A number of new entrants are looking to challenge Bombardier and Embraer at the upper end of the regional jet market.  These new players include COMAC of China, Mitsubishi of Japan, and Sukhoi of Russia.




All of this week's top headlines to your email every Friday.


 
 

 

President proclaims Memorial Day as ‘Day of Prayer’

President Barack Obama May 22 saluted the service and sacrifices of America’s military members–past and present–and proclaimed Memorial Day, May 25, 2015, “as a day of prayer for permanent peace, and I designate the hour beginning in each locality at 11 a.m. of that day as a time during which people may unite in prayer....
 
 

Air Force leaders’ Memorial Day message

Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee James and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark A. Welsh III send the following Memorial Day message to the Airmen of the Air Force and their families: To the Airmen of the United States Air Force and their Families: On Memorial Day, Americans pause in solemn remembrance...
 
 

Headlines May 22, 2015

News: Second Marine killed in Hawaii Osprey crash identified - Marine Corps officials have identified the second Marine to die as a result of the May 17 MV-22B Osprey crash as Lance Cpl. Matthew J. Determan of Maricopa, Ariz.   Business: Israel defense exports plunge to seven-year low - Israeli defense sales last year plunged to their...
 

 

News Briefs May 22, 2015

Ukrainian officer hit with third charge in Russia A third charge has been filed against a Ukrainian military officer who has been behind bars in Moscow for nearly a year over the deaths of two Russian journalists in Ukraine. Nadezhda Savchenko, who worked as a spotter for Ukrainian troops fighting separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine,...
 
 
Army photograph by C. Todd Lopez

Smart-mortar will help Soldiers more effectively hit targets

Army photograph by C. Todd Lopez Nick Baldwin and Evan Young, researchers with the Armament Research Development and Engineering Center at Picatinny Arsenal, Pennsylvania, discuss the 120mm Guided Enhanced Fragmentation Mortar ...
 
 

Air Force assigns new chief scientist

The Air Force announced the service’s new chief scientist to serve as a science and technology adviser to the secretary of the Air Force and the chief of staff of the Air Force, May 21. Dr. Greg Zacharias will be the 35th chief scientist and is ready to “dive in” to his new role. “I...
 




0 Comments


Be the first to comment!


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>