Business

October 9, 2013

Forecast International predicts restrained growth in regional aircraft market

In Forecast International’s new study, “The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft,” the Connecticut-based market research firm predicts that 4,035 regional aircraft will be built from 2013 through 2022.

The value of this production, which includes both regional jets and regional turboprop airliners, is estimated at $141.8 billion in 2013 U.S. dollars.

In the new study, Forecast International projects that annual regional aircraft production will experience gradual, though steady, growth between 2013 and 2020.  The company expects 371 regional aircraft to be produced in 2013, with annual output rising to a peak of 486 aircraft in 2020.  A cyclical downturn is anticipated for 2021 and 2022, the final two years of the forecast period.

Increasing market demand for regional aircraft is being fueled by a number of factors, including rising air traffic on regional routes and a need for regional carriers to replace economically inefficient aircraft.  However, the Forecast International study points out that certain restraining factors exist that will place some limits on growth in the market.  For instance, the ongoing consolidation of major airlines has led to fewer opportunities for feeder work for regional carriers.  Too many regional airlines are chasing too few opportunities.

Other factors that will hamper market growth include increasing government regulation and the maturation of the U.S. and European air travel markets.  In addition, perhaps the most critical factor limiting market growth is the continuing existence of scope clauses in major airline pilot contracts, which restrict the size and number of aircraft that regional partners of major carriers can operate.  The maximum capacity permitted in most scope clauses in the U.S. market is 76 seats.

The existence of such scope clauses limits the overall growth that can be achieved in sales of regional jets seating 90 passengers or more.  Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski said, “Scope clauses constitute an artificial barrier to natural growth in the regional jet market.  Demand in the market is already trending toward larger-capacity aircraft and, in the absence of scope clause limitations, this trend would strengthen and accelerate.”

Forecast International predicts that the leading regional aircraft manufacturers during the 2013-2022 timeframe will be Bombardier, Embraer, and ATR.  Bombardier is expected to lead the market in the number of aircraft produced, while Embraer is forecast to lead in the monetary value of production.  Bombardier is expected to produce 1,035 regional aircraft, worth $47.7 billion, during the forecast period.  Embraer is projected to build 1,018 regional aircraft, worth $49.5 billion.  ATR is expected to be third in both categories with production of 668 aircraft, worth $15.4 billion.

A number of new entrants are looking to challenge Bombardier and Embraer at the upper end of the regional jet market.  These new players include COMAC of China, Mitsubishi of Japan, and Sukhoi of Russia.




All of this week's top headlines to your email every Friday.


 
 

 

Northrop Grumman passes key design review for B-2 weapons management upgrade

Northrop Grumman has successfully demonstrated to the U.S. Air Force that its plans to upgrade key weapons management software for the B-2 stealth bomber are on track and ready to proceed to the next level of development. The company successfully completed the critical design review of the service’s Flexible Strike Phase 1 program on Feb...
 
 

Boeing creates defense data analytics group

As part of a focus on increasing its global competitiveness, Boeing Defense, Space & Security is creating a new data analytics organization to provide customers with new and advanced offerings for leveraging information technologies across its products and services. Also, Chris Raymond, currently the vice president of Business Development & Strategy for Defense, Space &...
 
 
NG-people2

Northrop Grumman names VP, mission assurance for Electronic Systems sector

Northrop Grumman has appointed Sonal B. Deshpande vice president of mission assurance for the company’s Linthicum-based Electronic Systems sector. In this position, Deshpande is responsible for mission assurance across th...
 

 
sikorsky-raider

Sikorsky S-97 Raider helicopter achieves successful first flight

Sikorsky Aircraft Corp., a United Technologies Corp. subsidiary, announced May 22 the successful first flight of the S-97 Raider™ helicopter, a rigid coaxial rotor prototype designed to demonstrate a game-changing combination...
 
 
NG-people

Northrop Grumman appoints VP, program manager ISR division

Northrop Grumman announced it has appointed Steve Lunny, vice president and program manager for the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance division within the company’s Information Systems sector. Lunny will report...
 
 

HELLADS laser completes development

General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. announced May 21 that the High-Energy Liquid Laser completed the U.S. government acceptance test procedure and is now being shipped to the White Sands Missile Range, N.M. At WSMR, the laser will undergo an extensive series of live fire tests against a number of military targets.  GAASI is a leading...
 




0 Comments


Be the first to comment!


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>